The Stock Indices Report
by Sean Lusk
Weekly S&P Report(67)
Weekly S and P Report Comments
By Sean Lusk, PFGBEST
July 7, 2012
E Mini S&P settles 1351.75 down 4.75
For the week ended (7/2-7/6)
Stock futures ended the week lower following yet another dismal jobs report for the month of June. The Dow and S&P posted weekly losses, while the NASDAQ managed to squeeze out a gain for the fifth consecutive week. For the week, the Dow lost 0.84 percent, the S&P lost 0.55 percent, while the NASDAQ posted a gain of just 0.08 percent. The CBOE volatility index, considered the best gauge of fear in the market, ended near 17. Non- farm payrolls rose by only 80K, according to the Labor department, missing expectations of a gain of 90K. The unemployment rate remained steady at 8.2 percent. With yet another month of weak employment growth, the second quarter ranks as the weakest three month period in the last two years. This has fueled speculation that the Fed will step in with additional monetary easing . Recent economic reports have been dismal with the ISM manufacturing index earlier this week indicating a contraction for the first time in nearly three years. The Euro slumped against the Dollar, to trade at a two year low on Friday. This move lower comes a day after the ECB cut its rates by a quarter of a point and slashed deposit rates to zero. Also, the Bank of England moved forward with more quantitative easing, while the People’s Bank of China moved forward with surprise rate cuts. Still, central bank efforts did little to raise equities. IMF President Christine Lagarde voiced concern over a slowdown in developed and big emerging economies echoing concerns voiced by ECB President Mario Draghi who said the euro zone economy would recover only gradually.
Heading into next week, the second quarter earnings season kicks off with just a few reports, but they will be important early looks at whether the fallout from Europe and the slower global growth is hurting corporate America. Alcoa kicks off earnings season after the bell Monday. After Friday’s disappointing U.S. jobs payrolls, jobs related data, such as Thursday’s weekly jobless claims, will be closely monitored, as will the minutes of the last Federal Reserve meeting Wednesday. But more important perhaps is a batch of fresh Chinese data, starting off Monday with inflation and export data, and winding down Friday with GDP, retail sales and industrial output. China, the world’s second largest economy surprised markets with a second round of interest rate cuts in the past week, raising speculation that the data will be weak. My swing numbers for next week come in as follows for the mini S&P. Support is down first at 1337.50 and with a close under, 1323.50 the next level down. Resistance is up at 1370.25 and with a close over 1389.00 the next level to the upside.
Daily Swing #s ESU (7/9)
Weekly Swing #s ESU2 (7/9-7/13)
Daily Swing #s YMU2 (7/9)
Weekly Swing #s YMM2 (7/9-7/13)
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PFGBEST Research Team