6/29/2009
Bonds are currently 2 higher at 118’19, the 10 Yr. Notes 2 higher, the 5 Yr. Notes 1 higher and the 2 Yr. Notes unchanged. Dec. Eurodollars are currently 2 lower at 99.085. We remain short both the Bonds and the Dec. Eurodollars.
On Friday Beans were 5 higher to 11 lower with old crop contracts continuing to gain on the new crop. Corn was 1-2 higher and Wheat 1 higher. Over night Beans were 1-3 higher after trading as much as 10 cents lower. Corn was 2 lower and Wheat 4 higher. We were stopped out of our long Nov. Bean position over night when the market traded below our sell stop of 987’0. We remain long Dec. Corn with a protective sell stop at 388’0.
On Friday Live Cattle closed slightly lower except for the expiring June contract which closed 52 higher. Aug. Cattle closed 15 lower at 82.40. We remain on the sidelines.
Sept. Silver is currently is currently 18 cents lower at 13.95. We remain long with a protective sell stop $1.00 below our entry level when we purchased July contracts (13.80-14.12). If the market trades above 14.45, raise your sell stop to the 13.45 level.
Sept. S&P’s are currently 3.00 higher at 917.00. To be honest I do not have a strong opinion at current levels. I will say that at the right price (about 940.00) I will be looking to once again short this market. For the near term I am looking to treat the S&P’s as a trading affair between 903.00 and 926.00.
As of this writing the Sept. Euro is currently 24 lower at 1.4051, the Swiss 36 lower, the Yen 28 lower and the Pound 13 higher at 1.6540. Given all the “saber rattling” about the Dollar being used less as a reserve currency I am reluctant to trade these markets for anything more than a short term trade until there is more definitive news. That being said I still feel the Pound is a good sale between 1.6600 and 1.6700. The Sept. Dollar Index is currently 6 higher at 80.165.
Regards,
Marc
Marc Nemenoff
PFGBEST Research Team
800.935.6496
mnemenoff@pfgbest.com
6/26/2009
Bonds are currently 4 lower at 117’28, the 10 Yr. Notes 2 lower, the 5 Yr. Notes 2 higher and the 2 Yr. Notes unchanged. Dec. Eurodollars are 2 lower at 99.120. We remain short the Dec. Eurodollars. I still like the short side of the Bonds despite yesterdays rally. If you remain short I will be looking to cover the position below the 116’25 level.
Yesterday Beans were 11 cents higher for old crop and 6 lower for new crop. Corn was 4 lower and Wheat 6 lower. Overnight Beans were 4-13 higher, Corn 1 higher and Wheat 2 higher. If you remain long Dec. Corn continue to use a protective sell stop at 388’0. If you remain long Nov. Beans continue to use a sell stop at 987’0.
Yesterday Live Cattle closed 7-30 higher with the Aug. contract closing 7 higher at 82.55. We are on the sidelines.
Sept. Silver is currently 16 cents higher at 14.17. We remain long with a protective sell stop $1.00 below our entry level. If the market trades above 14.45 raise your sell stop to the 13.45 level. Next week I will be referring to the Sept. contract.
Sept. S&P’s are currently 3.00 lower at 913.00. Yesterday the market traded through near term resistance of 905.00. Support is currently 896.00 and resistance 923.00. I remain on the sidelines.
As of this writing the Sept. Euro is 80 higher at 1.4047, the Swiss 70 higher, the Yen 70 higher and the Pound 106 higher at 1.6476. For any of you who went short the Pound earlier in the week, my recommended buy stop of 1.6400 was hit over night. I still like the idea of trading the short side of the Pound above the 1.6600 level. The Sept. Dollar Index is currently 53 lower at 80.16. I am on the sidelines.
Regards,
Marc
Marc Nemenoff
PFGBEST Research Team
800.935.6496
mnemenoff@pfgbest.com
6/25/2009
Sept. Bonds are currently 5 lower at 116’13, the 10 Yr. Notes 2 lower, the 5 Yr. Notes 1 higher and the 2 Yr. Notes 1 higher. Dec. Eurodollars are 6 higher at 99.110. We remain short the Dec. Eurodollars with a downside objective of 98.770. If you remain short Sept. Bonds (yesterday’s recommendations: either take profits on the short term trade or use a buy stop above the 117’14.5 level) either take profits or use a protective buy stop at 116’31. My near term objective of 115’28 has been just about met with the overnight low of 116’08. I am inclined to take the money and stand aside.
Yesterday Beans were 3-6 cents higher with old crop continuing to gain slightly on new crop. Corn was 2 lower and Wheat 7 lower. Over night Beans were steady to 4 higher, Corn 2 lower and Wheat 5 lower. If you remain long Dec. Corn continue to use a protective sell stop at 388’0. If the market trades above 413’0 raise your stop to the 393’0 level. For those of you who remain long Nov. Beans either take profits or raise your protective sell stop to the 987’0 level.
Yesterday Live Cattle closed 20-85 lower with the Aug. contract closing 85 lower at 82.47. We were stopped out of a recent long position when the market traded through our entry level.
July Silver is currently 2 cents higher at 13.93. We remain long with a protective sell stop $1.00 below our entry level. If the market trades above the 14.45 level raise your sell stop to 13.45.
Sept. S&P’s are currently 6.00 lower at 892.00. Near term support and resistance remain at 883.00 and 905.00. If you went short yesterday at 905.00, take the money and stand aside.
As of this writing Sept. Euros are 15 lower at 1.3904, the Swiss 7 lower, the Yen 47 lower and the Pound 157 lower 1.6253. Yesterday the high on the Pound was 1.6600, I had recommended going short above 1.6600. To be honest, I missed this trade. If you went short anywhere near this level, I recommend either taking profits or using a protective buy stop at 1.6475. If the market trades below 1.6195, lower your buy stop to the 164.05 level. The Sept. Dollar Index is currently 31 higher at 81.19.
Regards,
Marc
Marc Nemenoff
PFGBEST Research Team
800.935.6496
mnemenoff@pfgbest.com
6/24/2009
Sept. Bonds are currently 15 lower at 116’23, the 10 Yr. Notes 13 lower, the 5 Yr. Notes 7 lower and the 2 Yr. Notes 2 lower. Dec. Eurodollars are 2 lower at 99.030. We remain short Dec. Eurodollars with a downside objective of 98.770. Yesterday the Bonds gave us the opportunity to go short above the 117’04 level, making a high of 117’14.5. If you went short only looking for a short term trade either take profits or use a protective buy stop just above yesterday’s high. If the market trades below 116’14 lower your buy stop to 116’31. For the moment my downside objective is the 115’28 area.
Yesterday Beans were 23-27 cents higher with old crop contracts gaining slightly on new crop. Corn was 3 cents higher and Wheat fractionally higher. Over night Beans were about a penny lower, Corn fractionally higher and Wheat 4 cents higher. If you remain long Dec. Corn continue to use a sell stop at 388’0. If the market trades above 413’0 raise your stop to the 393’0 level. For those of you who went long Nov. Beans earlier in the week, either take profits or raise your sell stop to the 982’0.
Yesterday Live Cattle closed 25-47 higher with the Aug. contract closing 47 higher at 83.32. Yesterday provided a short term profit taking opportunity for recent long positions as the market traded as high as 83.60 (see yesterdays comments). My near term objective remains at 84.00 and longer term 85.10. Raise your sell stop to your break even level.
July Silver is currently 20 cents higher at 14.04. We remain long with a protective sell stop $1.00 below our entry level. If the market trades above the 14.45 level, raise your sell stop to the 13.45 level. I recommend “rolling” July positions into either the Sept. or Dec. contracts by the end of the week to avoid a delivery situation.
Sept. S&P’s are currently 9.00 higher at 899.25. Yesterday we were stopped out of a recent long position from the 896.00 level when our sell stop at 885.50 was touched off. Near term support is currently 883.00 and near term resistance the 905.00 area. Treat as a trading market.
As of this writing the Sept. Euro is 24 lower at 1.4052, the Swiss 124 lower, the Yen 15 lower and the Pound 105 higher at 1.6555. As mentioned over the past few days I am willing to try the short side of the Pound above the 1.6600 level. The Sept. Dollar Index is currently 2 lower at 80.155. I remain on the sidelines.
Regards,
Marc
Marc Nemenoff
PFGBEST Research Team
800.935.6496
mnemenoff@pfgbest.com
6/23/2009
Sept. Bonds are currently 11 lower at 116’00, the 10 Yr. Notes 7 lower, the 5 Yr. Notes 5 lower and the 2 Yr. Notes 2 lower. Dec. Eurodollars are 2 lower at 98.980. We remain short the Dec. Eurodollars with a small loss. My downside objective is currently the 98.770 level. As for Sept. Bonds, I remain on the sidelines and will look at rallies above the 117’04 level as an opportunity to go short if the market allows.
Yesterday Beans were 25 cents lower, Corn 14 lower and Wheat 9 lower. Over night Beans were 13 higher, Corn fractionally higher and Wheat 3 higher. If you went long Nov. Beans yesterday use a protective sell stop at 964’0. If the market trades above the 1005’0 level, either take profits or raise your sell stop to the 982’0 level. If you went long Dec. Corn use a protective sell stop at 388’0. If the market trades above the 413’0 level raise your stop to 493’0.
Yesterday Live Cattle closed 55-77 higher depending on the contract month. Aug. Cattle closed 72 higher at 82.85. If you went long one hour after the opening, as mentioned in yesterday’s comments, you would have been able to buy the Aug. contract at about 82.40. I am recommending risking 100 points initially. If the market trades above the 83.40 level either take profits or raise your sell stop to your break even level. My near term objective is currently 84.00. If this level is successfully penetrated to the upside, my next objective will be 85.10. The market is currently trading at 83.00.
July Silver is currently 10 cents higher atm13.81. We remain long with a protective sell stop $1.00 below our entry level. If the market trades above 14.45 raise your sell stop to the 13.45 level. I recommend rolling your position into either the Sept. or Dec. contract by the end of the week to avoid a delivery situation.
Sept. S&P’s are currently 4.00 higher at 892.50. Yesterday the market traded through my recommended support level of 896.00. If you went long at this level I recommend using a protective sell stop at 885.50. Near term resistance is currently the 908.00. As I have mentioned over the last few days I am only looking for short term trades at the moment. If the market trades above the 905.00 level, take profits from any new long positions.
As of this writing the Sept. Euro is 137 higher at 1.4000, the Swiss 110 higher, the Yen 7 higher and the Pound 17 higher at 1.6359. The Sept. Dollar Index is currently 56 lower at 80.560. My only currency recommendation at this time is to go short the British Pound if the market rallies above the 1.6600 level.
Regards,
Marc
Marc Nemenoff
PFGBEST Research Team
800.935.6496
mnemenoff@pfgbest.com
6/22/2009
Bonds are currently 26 higher at 115’22, the 10 Yr. Notes 16 higher at 114’28, the 5 Yr. Notes 8 higher at 113’21 and the 2 Yr. Notes 3 higher at 107’25. Dec. Eurodollars are currently 2.5 higher at 98.960. We remain short the Dec. Eurodollars. For the very near term support and resistance for Sept. Bonds is 114’14 to 116’18. Longer term resistance for the Bonds comes in at 117’10. I am currently on the sidelines but will look at a rally above the 117’04 level as a selling opportunity. My gut feeling is that if the equities markets stay under pressure we will see a flight to quality rally in the Bonds which could provide this selling opportunity.
On Friday Beans were 34-37 cents lower with old crop contracts gaining slightly on new crop contracts. Corn was 4 cents lower and Wheat 5 cents lower. Over night the markets continued lower with Beans 11-16 lower, Corn 11 lower and Wheat 9 lower. I will be a buyer this morning with a 20 cent risk.
On Friday Live Cattle were 15-57 higher with the Aug. contract closing 42 higher at 82.12. On Friday there was a monthly Cattle on Feed Report which showed: On Feed 96% of a year ago versus expectations of 96.7%. Placements 86% versus expectations of 87.7%. Marketed was 91% of a year ago versus expectations 90.9%. All in all, I would have to look at this as a friendly report. Under normal circumstances I would call the market higher because of the report. But given the fact that just about all commodity markets are lower this morning I must admit I have no idea how we will open. That being said, I am encouraged by Friday’s close above the 82.10 level and see the possibility for a rally above the 84.00 level. If the market is trading higher an hour after the open (9:05 central time), I will be looking to be a buyer on setbacks.
July Silver is currently 44 cents lower at 13.76. We remain long form higher prices with a protective sell stop $1.00 below our entry level. If the market should trade above 14.45 raise your sell stop to the 13.45 level.
Sept. S&P’s are currently 9.50 lower at 906.25. I continue to look at this market as a trading affair between 896.00 and 923.00. If you were fortunate to go short near the higher end of this range on Friday, take profits.
As of this writing the Sept. Euro is 110 lower at 1.4837, the Swiss 70 lower, the Yen 40 higher and the Pound 139 lower 1.6374. The Sept. Dollar Index is 58 higher at 81.21. I am currently on the sidelines. The one trade that I am looking at is going short the Pound on rallies to the 1.6600 level.
Regards,
Marc
Marc Nemenoff
PFGBEST Research Team
800.935.6496
mnemenoff@pfgbest.com
6/19/2009
Bonds are currently 3 lower at 114’02, the 10 Yr. Notes 4 lower, the 5 Yr. Notes 1 lower and the 2 Yr. Notes unchanged. Dec. Eurodollars are 3 higher at 98.870. Yesterday we covered a recent short position in Sept. Bonds. We remain short Dec. Eurodollars with a downside objective below the 98.780 level. As mentioned yesterday, I am hesitant to take a position on the long end of the yield curve (30 Yr. & 10 Yr.) for more than a day or two because of market uncertainty. For the near term, support for Sept. Bonds is the 113’24 area and resistance the 116’00 area. Treat as a trading market.
Yesterday Beans were 7 cents higher to 7 cents lower depending on the contract month with old crop gaining on new crop. Corn was 4 cents lower and Wheat 5 lower. I still like going long new crop contracts in Beans and Corn on breaks from current levels.
Yesterday Live Cattle closed 22-57 higher with the Aug. contract closing 32 higher at 81.70. I believe that market participants will be watching closely to see if the Aug. contract can close above its recent high of 82.10. If this should occur it could signal a rally to the 84.00 area.
July Silver is currently 8 cents higher at 14.32. We remain long with a protective sell stop $1.00 below our entry level. If the market trades above the 14.45 level I recommend raising your sell stop to the 13.45 level.
Sept. S&P’s are currently 7.00 higher at 920.75. I am still looking to treat this market as a trading affair between 896.00 and 923.00 with a risk of 10.00 for the day.
As of this writing the Sept. Euro is 31 higher at 1.3923, the Swiss 15 higher, the Yen 15 lower and the Pound 114 higher at 1.6462. The Sept. Dollar Index is currently 23 lower at 80.780. I remain on the sidelines.
Regards,
Marc
Marc Nemenoff
PFGBEST Research Team
800.935.6496
mnemenoff@pfgbest.com
6/18/2009
Sept. Bonds are currently 1’03 lower at 115’07, the 10 Yr. Notes 20 lower, the 5 Yr. Notes 15 lower and the 2 Yr. Notes 2 lower. Dec. Eurodollars are 2 lower 98.93. This mornings Weekly Jobless Claims report showed a slight increase of 3,000 versus expectations of 2,000. The real important number in the Report was the 148,000 decline in continuing claims, the first drop since the Jan. 3 report and the largest drop since Nov. 24, 2001. Yesterday saw the Bonds rally to the 117’00 level after discussions about Health Care and an increase in Federal regulation over derivatives at the Federal Reserve level. If you went short the Bonds at my recommended resistance level of the 116’08 level, I recommend taking the short term profit. Given the increased uncertainty as to action at the Fed I am looking to limit exposure. We remain short Dec. Eurodollars.
Yesterday Beans were 5-21 cents higher depending on the contract month, Corn 3 higher and Wheat fractionally higher. Over night Beans were mixed, Corn 2 lower and Wheat 2 higher. I still remain friendly to these markets and will be looking to buy new crop contracts on breaks.
Yesterday Live Cattle closed 22-100 higher with the Aug. contract closing 100 higher at 81.37. I am currently on the sidelines.
July Silver is currently 4 cents lower at 14.24. We remain long with a protective sell stop $1.00 below our recent entry level (14.10-14.30).
Sept. S&P’s are currently 3.00 higher at 908.25. The market is up on the decline in continuing jobless claims as mentioned earlier in this report. Again, given the uncertainty of future government regulation I am going to try to limit exposure in this market and only look for short term trades over the next few sessions. At the moment I will be a buyer below the 896.00 level and a seller above the 923.00 level and limit my risk to 10.00 points ($500.00 for the mini contract).
As of this writing the Sept. Euro is 14 lower at 1.3943, the Swiss 53 lower, the Yen 46 lower and the Pound 155 lower 1.6274. The Sept. Dollar Index is up 19 at 80.765. I am currently on the sidelines. My focus at the moment is on the Pound which looks as if it may be topping out. Stay tuned.
Regards,
Marc
Marc Nemenoff
PFGBEST Research Team
800.935.6496
mnemenoff@pfgbest.com
6/17/2009
Bonds are currently 16 higher at 116’06, the 10 Yr. Notes 2 higher, the 5 Yr. Notes 2 higher and the 2 Yr. Notes 2 higher at 107’26. The Dec. Eurodollars are 2 higher at 98.96. The CPI report this morning showed an increase of 0.1% versus expectations of 0.3%. This showed that inflation is not as much of a threat as anticipated causing these markets to rally. Yesterday we went short Dec. Eurodollars. Sept. Bonds have now rallied into near term resistance in the 116’08 area and I am looking to trade this market from the short side.
Yesterday Beans were 4 cents higher, Corn 2 lower and Wheat 9 lower. I am still looking to treat any further breaks in these markets as buying opportunities.
Yesterday Live Cattle closed 30-67 lower with the Aug. contract closing 45 lower at 80.37. We have been stopped out of a recent long position.
July Silver is currently 8 cents lower at 14.04. Over night the market traded as low as 13.93. Yesterday we went long early in the session and we are currently using a protective sell stop $1.00 below our entry level for protection.
Sept. S&P’s are currently 1.00 lower at 906.75. This mornings CPI report has slightly lifted the market off of the over night low of 903.00. Yesterdays near term support of 914.00 has been violated putting the next level of support just below the 900.00. As I have mentioned in my last few comments I remain negative this market overall. This does not mean that money cannot be made in the short term from the long side. I recommend trading from the long side on breaks below the 900.00 level for a short term trade (1-3 days).
As of this writing the Sept. Euro is 34 higher at 1.3867, the Swiss 2 higher, the Yen 36 higher and the Pound 161 lower at 1.6271. The Sept. Dollar Index is trading 2 lower at 81.110. I remain on the sidelines.
Regards,
Marc
Marc Nemenoff
PFGBEST Research Team
800.935.6496
mnemenoff@pfgbest.com
6/16/2009
Sept. Bonds are currently 11 lower at 114’26, the 10 Yr. Notes 11 lower at 114’14, the 5 Yr. Notes 8 lower at 113’12 and the 2 Yr. Notes 2 lower at 107’21. Dec. Eurodollars are 4 lower at 98.890. I had been out of town for a few days so let me give you a recap of the last few days. Mid week (last week) we covered short positions in the Sept. 2 Yr. Notes below 107’18 and the Dec. Eurodollars below 98.650. The Bonds were trading at about 113’00. Since that time the Bonds traded as low as 111’21 and as high as 115’20. The predominant trend on these markets is still down and I am looking to re-establish a short position in Dec. Eurodollars above the 98.920 level. As for Bonds, resistance is in the 116’00 to 116’08 area, a level where I am also willing to try the short side of the market.
Yesterday Beans were 48 cents lower, Corn 19 lower and Wheat 9 lower. Over night Beans were 17 higher, Corn 4 higher and Wheat 6 higher. Our position in July Corn calls and/or call spreads has dropped in value dramatically as we are nearing expiration and also the dramatic recovery in the Dollar over the last few sessions. Given the fact that they are near worthless I recommend taking the loss on any recovery in the futures price. As for futures, I am willing to try the long side of these markets on any further breaks in the Dec. contracts for Corn and Wheat and Nov. Beans.
Yesterday Live Cattle closed 57-77 lower with the Aug. contract closing 77 lower at 80.82. The market is currently 17 higher at 81.00. If you remain long, continue to use a protective sell stop at your entry level for Aug. Cattle.
July Silver is currently 28 cents higher 14.31. Last week we were on the sidelines awaiting a break below the 14.60 level to go long. I still want to be a buyer, and recommend going long at current prices with a 1.00 risk ($1,000 for a mini contract, $5,000 for the full size contract). An alternative would be buying an out of the money call spread in the Dec. contract.
Sept. S&P’s are currently 4.00 higher at 923.50. Given the fact the market was not able to settle above the 95.00 level last week makes me a bit negative the market on rallies above the 940.00 level. Near term support is currently 914.00; longer term support is in the 890.00 level.
As of this writing the Sept. Euro is 115 higher at 1.3890, the Swiss 55 higher, the Yen 56 higher and the Pound 143 higher at 1.6433. The Sept. Dollar Index is currently 55 lower at 81.00. To be honest, I am still on the sidelines in these markets and recommend only trading them from either side of the market with a short term outlook on sharp breaks or rallies.
Regards,
Marc
Marc Nemenoff
PFGBEST Research Team
800.935.6496
mnemenoff@pfgbest.com
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