The Nemenoff Report
by Marc Nemenoff
Silver Lower, Dollar Higher, S&P's Lower
11/20/2009
Financials:
Dec. Bonds are currently unchanged at 120’26. We continue to hold the combination of short Dec. Bonds and short the Mar. Bond 115’00 put. Next week I will “roll” the short Dec. Bond futures into the Mar. contract.
Grains:
Yesterday Beans were 12 cents higher, Corn 3 lower and Wheat 3 lower. Over night Beans were 1 lower, Corn 3 lower and Wheat 5 lower. Dec. Grain options expire today. We continue to hold a combination of out of the money short puts and short calls (with strike prices about $1.00 out of the money) in Mar. Beans. I am on the sidelines in Wheat and Corn.
Cattle:
Yesterday Dec. Cattle closed 60 higher at 83.67. The long Dec. /short Apr. spread gained back 60 points closing at 420 premium the Apr. We continue to hold both this spread and a net long position in Dec. Cattle. Continue to use a protective sell stop in Dec. Cattle 300 points below your entry level.
Silver:
Dec. Silver is currently 23 cents lower at 18.20. We remain long out of the money call spreads in the July contract.
S&P's:
Dec. S&P’s are currently 6.75 lower at 1087.50. Near term support remains at 1086.00 and near term resistance is now the 1106.00 level. I remain on the sidelines.
Currencies:
As of this writing the Dec. Euro is 82 lower at 1.4835, the Swiss 60 lower 98.10, the Yen 13 lower 1.1224 and the Pound 167 lower at 1.6477. I continue to favor the short side of the currencies and recommend being long out of the money puts and/or put spreads. The Dec. Dollar Index is currently 44 higher at 75.81. Support in the Dollar Index is currently 74.80 and resistance remains at 76.50 for the near term.
Regards,
Marc
Marc Nemenoff
PFGBEST Research Team
800.935.6496
mnemenoff@pfgbest.com
Dollar Higher, Grains Lower, S&P's Lower
11/19/2009
Financials:
Bonds are currently 13 higher at 120’29, however 9 lower since this time yesterday. This morning’s weekly unemployment report was about unchanged at 505K. Yesterday we were able to sell the Mar. 115’00 put at 1’03 or better leaving us with the combination of short Dec. Bonds and short the Mar. Bond 115’00 put. Keep in mind there are 7 trading days until you should roll your Dec. Bonds into the Mar. contract. On Nov. 30th, the Mar. contract will become the volume leader.
Grains:
Yesterday Beans were 2 lower, Corn 4 lower and Wheat 8 lower. Over night Beans were 7 lower, Corn 5 lower and Wheat 12 lower. The market is now quite a bit below yesterday’s intraday highs as the Dollar has rallied a bit and harvest pressure has come into play. Yesterday I recommended selling a combination of out of the money puts and calls in Mar. Beans. I recommend choosing strike prices about one dollar out of the money on each leg of this combination.
Cattle:
Yesterday Dec. Cattle closed 100 lower at 83.07. The long Dec. / short Apr. spread lost about 70 points closing at 480 premium the Apr. We continue to hold this spread. We also remain long Dec. Cattle from below the 83.80 level with a protective sell stop 300 points below our entry level.
Silver:
Dec. Silver is currently 3 cents higher at 18.45. We continue to hold out of the money call spreads in the July contract. A consecutive close above 18.40 will be a positive technical signal.
S&P's:
Dec. S&P’s are currently 8.25 lower at 1100.25. I remain on the sidelines. Near term support is currently 1086.00 and resistance 1111.00.
Currencies:
As of this writing the Dec. Euro is 70 lower at 1.4868, the Swiss 48 lower at .9840, the Yen 84 higher at 1.1262 and the Pound 90 lower at 1.6625. Against conventional wisdom, I continue to recommend being long puts and or put spreads in the currencies, preferably the Jan. or Mar. contracts. The Dec. Dollar Index is 21 higher at 75.47. I like the long side of this market on breaks. Support for the Dollar Index is currently 74.40 and resistance 76.50.
Regards,
Marc
Marc Nemenoff
PFGBEST Research Team
800.935.6496
mnemenoff@pfgbest.com
S&P's Lower,Grains Higher, Dollar Lower
11/18/2009
Financials:
Dec. Bonds are currently 4 higher at 121’06. Yesterday we were able to cover our short Jan. Bond 115’00 put at 18 points. This morning I recommend selling the Mar. Bond 115’00 put at 1’03 or better leaving us with the combination of short Dec. Bonds and short the Mar. Bond 115’00 put. At the end of the month Mar. Bonds will become the volume leader and I recommend rolling your Dec. position into Mar. sometime in the next 10 days. Technically the Bonds are currently in resistance.
Grains:
Yesterday Beans were 19 higher, Corn fractionally lower and Wheat 12 higher. Over night Beans were 16 higher, Corn 3 higher and Wheat 3 higher. A weak Dollar is fueling the current rally. At the moment we are on the sidelines. However, for your consideration, I recommend the following combination. Sell the Mar. Beans 960’0 put and sell the Mar. Beans 1150’0 call. You should collect about 62’0 for the combination. As long as Mar. Beans stay above 900’0 and below 1210”0 there should be some profit potential. Ideally if Mar. Beans fall between the strike prices at expiration you will collect the full value of the premium.
Cattle:
Yesterday Dec. Cattle closed 50 higher at 84.07. The long Dec. /short Apr. spread has gained 75 points over the last three sessions closing at 397 premium the Apr. We continue to hold this spread. We also remain outright long Dec. Cattle from below the 83.80 level. We are currently using a 300 point protective sell stop for this position. If Dec. Cattle should trade above the 85.10 level, either take profits or raise your sell stop to the 82.25 level.
Silver:
Dec. Silver is currently 34 cents higher at 18.73. We continue to hold out of the money call spreads in the July contract. The market looks poised to close above the 18.40 level, which could be a technical breakout.
S&P's:
Dec. S&P’s are currently 2.00 lower at 1105.50. I remain on the sidelines.
Currencies:
As of this writing the Dec. Euro is 85 higher at 1.4938, the Swiss 61 higher at .9890, the Yen 18 higher at 1.1219 and the Pound 10 lower at 1.6783. We remain long out of the money puts and or put spreads in the Yen, the Pound and the Euro. The Dec. Dollar Index is currently 36 lower at 75.10. I feel the Index will find support in the in the 74.40 area.
Regards,
Marc
Marc Nemenoff
PFGBEST Research Team
800.935.6496
mnemenoff@pfgbest.com
About Marc Nemenoff »
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