The Grain Report

by Tim Hannagan

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7/11/2012

MORE  REPORTS. Our first report came out Monday at 10 AM central time with the weekly   export inspection report. For corn 22.8 million bushels were inspected to be shipped near-term about unchanged from last week's 22.3 it's consistent with the four-week average and shows that there's at least some demand even at lofty prices. Soybeans showed 18.9 million bushels will inspected to be shipped near-term up sharply from 14.6 last week and well over the four-week average. Of the total China was in for 10.7 million bushels versus 5 million last week and the three prior weeks of 4,3 and 7 m.b. China's desperate need for high protein vegetable oil crops has them buying even as the market makes new highs for the year. Note, last week. China was in one day for 1.9 million metric tons the fifth largest single daily purchase. Monday at 3 PM central our crop condition report came out. Corn came in at 40% in good to excellent condition, versus 48 last week and 69% a year ago. The driest areas in the Eastern grain belt read like this. Illinois 19% good to excellent, down seven, Indiana 12% down six, Missouri 12%, down six and Ohio 28%, down five from the week prior. Dry weather this week looks to have another cut in condition  on Mondays update. The Western grain belt fared about as bad with Iowa 46%, down 16% from the week prior and Nebraska 47% down nine. Kansas 19%, down seven, should have fewer and fewer people thinking that with the wheat harvest winding down in Kansas that growers will risk double cropping by planting soybeans in such dry soil. Soybeans conditions were 40% good to excellent versus 55% last week and 66% a year ago. Illinois 20%, down eight, Indiana 14% down six, Ohio 27% down two and Missouri 13% down five. Western grain belt is trying to catch up with Iowa at 48% down 11 and Nebraska 41% down four. Like corn, expect beans on Mondays update to show further declines in the condition. The finale report was today's USDA monthly crop production report. All eyes were generally on the ending stocks numbers for the 2012-13 crop season which begins September 1 and ends August 31, 2013. Corn ending stocks were put at 1.183 b.b. down from 1.881 last month due to a cut in yield from 166 bushels per acre to 146 bushels per acre. Feed use was cut, but consider this, beans stocks are heading lower so expect more corn in the feed ration because of the high price of soy meal as exporters push more soy meal into the food ration in the European and Asian markets. Soybeans ending stocks came in at 130 million bushels a 10 year low versus 140 last month. They raised exports 5 million bushels and the crush up a 15 m.b. Certainly a very friendly number near-term and bullish long term, but I suggest it's probably a little conservative. After pushing corn and soybean prices sharply higher after the report pricing in the bullish numbers ,corn and soybean prices fell to down on the day. This was easy to call. On two fronts. One, trend following funds have taken profits after every monthly crop report this year and 10 of 12 months last year, as taking profits and paying month-end bonuses on profits taking is a regular practice. Two, WXRISK.com the weather site expects rain over 45% of the Midwest grain belt next week. There is  certainly time to dry this rain up and take it out of the forecast but if the rain totals come in as expected it will be very timely for the last two weeks of the silking stage for corn and the beginning of the pods sending stage for beans. Worst-case scenario for December corn would be a pullback to about 6.22 and soybeans 14.85. Because we don't have another supply side concerning report until August, the market now reverts back to weather as the primary pricing source. Tim Hannagan pfg

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities. PFGBEST, its officers and directors may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.

 

Tim Hannagan
PFGBEST Research Team
800.563.9510
thannagan@pfgbest.com


There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities. PFGBEST, its officers and directors may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.